Comparing National Championship and Final Four Odds
Rob made a very good point in the comments of yesterday's "Final Four Odds" post:
"I agree that Sportsbook did not really make any assumptions regarding seed. In fact, I think these odds are simple extensions of their odds to win the title...Simply, it looks like they are dividing the odds of winning the title by a factor between 4.5 and 5."This is very true. It is also an awful way to go about creating these Final Four odds. Let's take a look at the Final Four and National Championship odds of the 14 longshots that have F4 odds listed.
The first three columns should be self explanatory (all odds taken from Sportsbook). The final column is their implied odds of winning the title should they reach the Final Four. For example, Indiana is 8:1 (11.1%) to reach San Antonio, and 40:1 (2.4%) to win the title, so their final column is .024/.111, or 22.0%.
For these two sets of odds to be equal, each of these teams would have to have between a 22% and 23.5% chance of winning two F4 games. None of them are even close to that number. Take Purdue, for instance. Let's give them a 30% chance of winning either game in the F4 (this is being generous). That puts them at 9% to win both. If they are 22:1 to reach San Antonio, they should be at least 250:1 to win it all. They are 100:1. You...
2008 Final Four Predictions
My guesses for the 2008 Final Four. Pictures and video. comment!!
2008 Final Four News

![]() Bleacher Report | Monster 2008 All-Star Game final vote underway only on MLB.com MLB.com - On the National League side, Corey Hart of the Milwaukee Brewers currently holds a small lead over the other four players on the ballot for the final roster Rowand up for All-Star nod in Final Vote • Wright needs Final Vote push from fans Balloting over; Selection Show Sunday |
![]() EiTB | 2008-09 Euroleague Draw, Executive quotes Euroleague, Spain - Our goal remains the same: coming back to Berlin for the Final Four. We are trying our best to have a competitive team. The competition system changed to 2008-09 Euroleague Draw results Euroleague Basketball 2008-09, Regular Season, Group B analysis Euroleague Basketball 2008-09, Regular Season, Group D analysis |
USA Today | Roger-Rafa epic punctuated Wimbledon '08 Sports Network - Federer tried to become the first man since 1927 (Henri Cochet) to overcome a two-sets-to-none deficit in the Wimbledon final. Rain interrupted the classic Reasons why Roger v Rafa was the best Wimbledon 2008 in review Roger-Rafa epic punctuated Wimbledon '08 |
![]() Bleacher Report | Final Vote race no ordinary campaign MLB.com - They are hoping to make it three Final Vote winners within a four-year span, after mounting successful campaigns for Scott Podsednik in 2005 and AJ Dye-hard fans have slugger in second |
Early look at 2008-09 Spartan hoops MLive.com, MI - Does that mean the Final Four is a lock? Absolutely not, but other than North Carolina, which should just pencil it's name on a Final Four line right now, |
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