Comparing National Championship and Final Four Odds
Rob made a very good point in the comments of yesterday's "Final Four Odds" post:
"I agree that Sportsbook did not really make any assumptions regarding seed. In fact, I think these odds are simple extensions of their odds to win the title...Simply, it looks like they are dividing the odds of winning the title by a factor between 4.5 and 5."This is very true. It is also an awful way to go about creating these Final Four odds. Let's take a look at the Final Four and National Championship odds of the 14 longshots that have F4 odds listed.
The first three columns should be self explanatory (all odds taken from Sportsbook). The final column is their implied odds of winning the title should they reach the Final Four. For example, Indiana is 8:1 (11.1%) to reach San Antonio, and 40:1 (2.4%) to win the title, so their final column is .024/.111, or 22.0%.
For these two sets of odds to be equal, each of these teams would have to have between a 22% and 23.5% chance of winning two F4 games. None of them are even close to that number. Take Purdue, for instance. Let's give them a 30% chance of winning either game in the F4 (this is being generous). That puts them at 9% to win both. If they are 22:1 to reach San Antonio, they should be at least 250:1 to win it all. They are 100:1. You...
Array
Kansas
Find 2008 Final Four Tickets
2008 Final Four News
 msnbc.com | UConn Women Win Record 71st In A Row Hartford Courant How could they not after traveling safely for so long since losing in the 2008 Final Four? The winning streak that began against Georgia Tech on Nov. This UConn streak stands alone With record winning streak in hand, Connecticut Huskies are as close to UConn Women Win 71st Straight Basketball Game, A New Record |
Self: KU assistant coach Dooley has not been offered East Carolina job KUsports Kansas University assistant basketball coach Joe Dooley, left, tests out basketballs with head coach Bill Self at a practice at the 2008 Final Four. |
Notre Dame girls play in third final four this school year Southeast Missourian third in the state in 2007 and second in 2008, the basketball team hasn't made an appearance at the final four since winning the state title in 2002. |
 The Guardian | MLS, players' union agree to federal mediation in negotiations The Star-Ledger - NJ.com reality of it is the men's tournament would overwhelm the women's tournament, and that isn't fair to the four women's teams that reach the Final Four. In no rush to exit, Donovan savors confidence-boosting run at Everton |
NFL Hurt Players' Reputations Over Drug Tests, Lawyer Argues BusinessWeek The NFL Players Association sued the league in December 2008 to overturn the suspensions of the players from the final four games of the regular season. |
Exclusives Directory
Final Four Tickets - 2010 Final Four Tickets at StubHub!
Final Four Tickets - Buy and sell 2010 NCAA Final Four Tickets in Indianapolis, Indiana and other NCAA Basketball Tournament Tickets at StubHub! ...
MAIN PAGE - Welcome to EUROLEAGUE BASKETBALL
Tau Ceramica lost another Final Four thriller, going down in overtime 97-93 to Montepaschi in the Third Place ... ยท 50 Years legends partake in Final Four activities (May 1, 2008) ...
YouTube - 2008 Final Four Kansas Jayhawks
Songs - 1. O Verona2. Non-Point - In The Air TonightDedicated to the 2008 Kansas Jayhawks in the Final Four
2008 Final Four Predictions and Analysis - Associated Content ...
2008 Final Four Predictions and Analysis. Published March 31, 2008 by: ... The Final Four is set for Saturday with four number one seeds facing each other in San ...
Euroleague Basketball and Audi announce partnership - MAIN ...
In the short span of seven years, the Final Four, which already has sold out the 14,000-seat Community of ... participate in the 2008 Euroleague Final Four, the most important ...