2008 Final Four

Comparing National Championship and Final Four Odds

Rob made a very good point in the comments of yesterday's "Final Four Odds" post:
"I agree that Sportsbook did not really make any assumptions regarding seed. In fact, I think these odds are simple extensions of their odds to win the title...Simply, it looks like they are dividing the odds of winning the title by a factor between 4.5 and 5."This is very true. It is also an awful way to go about creating these Final Four odds. Let's take a look at the Final Four and National Championship odds of the 14 longshots that have F4 odds listed.

The first three columns should be self explanatory (all odds taken from Sportsbook). The final column is their implied odds of winning the title should they reach the Final Four. For example, Indiana is 8:1 (11.1%) to reach San Antonio, and 40:1 (2.4%) to win the title, so their final column is .024/.111, or 22.0%.

For these two sets of odds to be equal, each of these teams would have to have between a 22% and 23.5% chance of winning two F4 games. None of them are even close to that number. Take Purdue, for instance. Let's give them a 30% chance of winning either game in the F4 (this is being generous). That puts them at 9% to win both. If they are 22:1 to reach San Antonio, they should be at least 250:1 to win it all. They are 100:1. You...

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2008 Final Four News




Globe and Mail

Charles adds Naismith award to list of achievements
Waterbury Republican American
Packing them in: The crowd for Sunday's national semifinals was 25817, the fourth-largest semifinal crowd in NCAA women's Final Four history.
UConn Women's Streak Something To Be CelebratedHartford Courant
UConn Huskies rip Baylor to run win streak to 77 and advance to the women's New York Daily News
Griner gives Baylor a chance to derail UConnDallas Morning News
Boston Herald -The Associated Press -Journal Inquirer
all 1,844 news articles »


Reuters

Great expectations await Michigan State in 2010-11
Detroit Free Press
Izzo crafted his 2008-09 squad to advance to the Final Four in Detroit. The current team, which ended its season Saturday with a 52-50 loss to Butler in the
Rites of Spring Offer Lessons for EveryoneNew York Times
Butler's cool coach has the Bulldogs running hotSt. Louis Post-Dispatch
Not exactly Cinderella: Butler brings more than an underdog's appeal to Plain Dealer
Indiana Daily Student -MSU State News -Chicago Tribune
all 4,534 news articles »


Duke, KU, San Diego State Top 2010-11 NCAA Basketball Teams to Watch
Associated Content
Four number one's made the 2008 Final Four. Which one will win it all? I stick with my bracket in this one. NCAA Basketball Rules: Would Your Favorite

and more »

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